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US DATA: NFIB Price Components Consolidate Prior Moderation

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The NFIB small business optimism index increased by a little less than expected in September, to 91.5 (cons 92.0) after 91.2 in Aug.
  • The press release notes this is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.
  • Ahead of upcoming inflation releases, the price components saw little material change.
    • The net share of firms that increased prices over the past three months lifted back to 22% (+2pps). It remains at one of its lowest since late 2020/early 2021 but is above the 13% averaged in 2019.
    • The net share that plan of increasing prices over the next three months held steady at 25% for a second month. The 24% in July was the lowest since Apr 2023 and before that late 2020 but is still a little higher than the 21% averaged in 2019. It offers only modest further downside bias to median PCE inflation of 3.2% Y/Y.
  • Recall that the NFIB hiring report last week showed flat to loosening labor market conditions. See here.
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  • The NFIB small business optimism index increased by a little less than expected in September, to 91.5 (cons 92.0) after 91.2 in Aug.
  • The press release notes this is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.
  • Ahead of upcoming inflation releases, the price components saw little material change.
    • The net share of firms that increased prices over the past three months lifted back to 22% (+2pps). It remains at one of its lowest since late 2020/early 2021 but is above the 13% averaged in 2019.
    • The net share that plan of increasing prices over the next three months held steady at 25% for a second month. The 24% in July was the lowest since Apr 2023 and before that late 2020 but is still a little higher than the 21% averaged in 2019. It offers only modest further downside bias to median PCE inflation of 3.2% Y/Y.
  • Recall that the NFIB hiring report last week showed flat to loosening labor market conditions. See here.