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US TSYS SUMMARY

Curve Lower, Flatter as Yields Reverse Off Cycle Highs

US TSY/RECAP

Yield Curve Update

STIR FUTURES

Eurodollars Futures Snapshot

USDCAD TECHS

Consolidating

AUDUSD TECHS

Probes Key Support

EURJPY TECHS

Bullish Conditions Intact

US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

     
              Oct-19  Sep-19  Aug-19  Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19   Mar-19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI
Claims/4wk
avg
              214/21  204/21  211/21  208/21
wk 1               5       3       3       9  219/215  228/220  197/207  224/220
              213/21  208/20  221/21  216/21
wk 2               8       6       4       9  222/218  212/225  193/201  216/220
                      219/21  211/21  207/21
wk 3                       3       5       3  217/219  212/221  230/206  212/217
                      220/21  216/21  217/21
wk 4                       0       5       2  229/222  218/217  230/212  204/214
                      210/21  219/21  211/21
wk 5                       4       7       3  222/223
Nonfarm
Payrolls               +136k   +168k   +166k    +193k     +62k    +216k    +153k
Private
Payrolls               +114k   +122k   +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k    +153k
Mfg Payroll              -2k     +2k    +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k      -3k
Unemployment            3.5%    3.7%    3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%     3.8%
Avg Wkly
Hours                   34.4    34.4    34.3     34.4     34.4     34.4     34.5
Avg Hours -
Mfg                     40.5    40.5    40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6     40.7
Aggr Hours
Index                   0.0%   +0.4%   -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.5%
Aggr Hrs
Index - Mfg             0.0%   +0.5%   -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%
Avg Hourly
Earnings               +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Final Demand
PPI                    -0.3%   +0.1%   +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%
excl food &
energy                 -0.3%   +0.3%   -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%
excl food,
energy,
trade                    0.0   +0.4%   -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%     Flat
CPI                    +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%
excl food &
energy                 +0.2%   +0.3%   +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%
Import
Prices                 +0.2%   -0.5%   +0.2%    -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.6%
non-petro
import
prices                           0.0    Flat    -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%     Flat
ISM Mfg
Prices Pd
Index                   49.7    46.0    45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0     54.3
PCE Price
Index M/M               0.0%    0.0%   +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%
PCE Price
Index Y/Y               1.3%    1.4%   +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%    +1.4%
Core PCE
Price Index
M/M                     0.0%    0.1%   +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Core PCE
Price Index
Y/Y                     1.3%    1.8%   +1.6%    +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%
Treasury                              -$200.
Budget (bn)                                3  -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8  +$160.3
Consumer
Credit (bn)                   +$17.9  +$23.3   +$13.8   +$17.1   +$17.5   +$11.0
CB Consumer
Confidence             125.1   135.1   135.8    124.3    131.3    129.2    124.2
Consumer
Sentiment                       89.8    98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2     98.5
Retail Sales           -0.3%    +0.4   +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%    +1.8%
excl motor
vehicles                         0.0   +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.4%
Personal
Income                         +0.4%   +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%
Personal
Spending                       +0.1%   +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.0%
ISM Mfg
Index                   47.8    49.1    51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8     55.3
ISM Nonmfg
NMI                             56.4    53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5     56.1
MNI Chicago
Report                  47.1    50.4    44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6     58.7
Phila Fed
Mfg Index               12.0    16.8    21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5     13.7
Phila Fed
Nonmfg Index    12.6     9.5     7.5    21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0     21.7
Empire State
Index            4.0     2.0     4.8     4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1      3.7
KC Fed Mfg
Index             -3      -2      -6      -1        0        4        5       10
Richmond Fed
Mfg Index                 -9       1     -12        2        7        9       10
Dallas Fed
Mfg Index                1.5     2.7    -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0      6.9
Markit Mfg
Index                   51.5    50.3    50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4     52.4
Markit
Services
Index                   50.9    50.7    53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0     55.3
Ind
Production             -0.4%   +0.8%   -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.6%    +0.1%
Capacity
Util                   77.5%   77.9%   77.5%    77.8%    77.8%    77.7%    78.4%
Factory
Orders                         -0.1%    +1.4    +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%    +1.3%
Factory
Orders ex
transport                               +0.3    +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Durables               -1.1%   +0.2%   +2.0%    +1.8%    -2.3%    -2.8%    +1.7%
Durables ex
transport              -0.3%   +0.5%   -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.4%    -0.2%    -0.5%
Nondurables                            +0.8%    -0.7%    -0.3%    +0.4%    +0.9%
Mfg
Shipments                               -0.2     +0.1    +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%
Business
Inventories              0.0    +0.4    +0.4     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%     Flat
Factory                                 +0.2    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%
Retail                  -0.1     0.8            -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.6%    -0.3%
Wholesale                       +0.2    +0.2     Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%     Flat
Housing
Starts (mn)            1.256   1.386   1.191    1.241    1.264    1.270    1.199
Building
Permits (mn)           1.387   1.425   1.336    1.232    1.299    1.290    1.288
NAHB Index                68      66      65       64       66       63       62
New Home
Sales (k)                701     706     635      646      604      658      705
Existing
Homes (mn)              5.38    5.49    5.42     5.29     5.36     5.21     5.21
Pending Home
Sales Index            108.7   107.1   105.6    108.3    105.4    104.3    105.9
Construct
Spending                         0.1     0.1     -0.7    -0.5%    +0.9%    +0.1%
Private
Residential                      0.9     0.6     -0.5     Flat    +0.9%    -0.8%
Trade
Balance (bn)                  -$54.9  -$54.0   -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2   -$51.9
Exports (bn)                  $207.9  $207.4   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4   $211.4
Imports (bn)                  $262.8  $261.4   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6   $263.3
Goods Only,
BOP (bn)                      -$74.4  -$72.5   -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7   -$72.7
Leading
Index                          +0.0%   +0.5%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%
                               Q3-19            Q2-19                      Q1-19
GDP
(chain-wt)                     +1.9%            +2.0%                      +3.1%
Final Sales                    +2.0%            +3.0%                      +2.6%
Chain prices                   +2.4%            +2.4%                      +1.1%
Current-doll
ar                             +1.7%            +4.6%                      +3.9%
                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19
Nonfarm
Productivity                                    +2.3%                      +3.5%
Nonfarm Unit
Labor Costs                                     +2.6%                      +5.5%
                               Q3-19            Q2-19                      Q1-19
ECI (q/q)                      +0.7%            +0.6%                      +0.7%
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com
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