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US DATA: Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys Point To ISM Upside Risk

US DATA
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  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprisingly increased to -3.0 (cons -9.2) in October after -9.0 in Sept.
  • It completes the set of the main regional Fed indicators for October where only the volatile Empire survey deteriorated vs September with -11.9 after 11.5.
  • Sequential improvements were seen in Philly (10.3 after 1.7), Richmond (-14 after a particularly weak -21), Kansas (-4 after -8) although as the levels indicate most remain in contractionary territory.
  • Whilst still negative, the unweighted average is improving at least, with the -4.5 inching up from -5.0 in September for technically its highest since Feb’24.
  • Combined, they continue to point to upside risk for Friday’s ISM mfg index (expected 47.6 after 47.2), having seen a level adjustment in the last two months – see chart. Before that ISM release though, the MNI Chicago PMI on Thursday. 
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  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing index surprisingly increased to -3.0 (cons -9.2) in October after -9.0 in Sept.
  • It completes the set of the main regional Fed indicators for October where only the volatile Empire survey deteriorated vs September with -11.9 after 11.5.
  • Sequential improvements were seen in Philly (10.3 after 1.7), Richmond (-14 after a particularly weak -21), Kansas (-4 after -8) although as the levels indicate most remain in contractionary territory.
  • Whilst still negative, the unweighted average is improving at least, with the -4.5 inching up from -5.0 in September for technically its highest since Feb’24.
  • Combined, they continue to point to upside risk for Friday’s ISM mfg index (expected 47.6 after 47.2), having seen a level adjustment in the last two months – see chart. Before that ISM release though, the MNI Chicago PMI on Thursday.