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US DATA: U.Mich Labor Expectations Also On The Mixed Side

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • U.Mich consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in the preliminary September report.
  • The labor details were mixed with more expecting broader unemployment to increase but no real change in consumer’s own job loss prospects.
  • The share expecting unemployment to increase one year out increased from 37% to 39% for its highest since Jun’23. It peaked at 45% in late 2022 whilst it averaged 28% in 2019, 25% in 2015-19).
  • The perceived probability of a respondent losing their job within the next five years ticked a tenth higher to 19% although it continues to broadly trend sideways and is much closer to the 17% averaged in 2019 or 18% in 2015-19).  
  • See the below charts for how they track the unemployment rate.
  • Separately, and anecdotally showing little inclination for early retirees to return to the labor force, the probability of receiving an adequate retirement income slightly extended its sharp increase with a 1pt increase to a new high of 46%. 
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  • U.Mich consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in the preliminary September report.
  • The labor details were mixed with more expecting broader unemployment to increase but no real change in consumer’s own job loss prospects.
  • The share expecting unemployment to increase one year out increased from 37% to 39% for its highest since Jun’23. It peaked at 45% in late 2022 whilst it averaged 28% in 2019, 25% in 2015-19).
  • The perceived probability of a respondent losing their job within the next five years ticked a tenth higher to 19% although it continues to broadly trend sideways and is much closer to the 17% averaged in 2019 or 18% in 2015-19).  
  • See the below charts for how they track the unemployment rate.
  • Separately, and anecdotally showing little inclination for early retirees to return to the labor force, the probability of receiving an adequate retirement income slightly extended its sharp increase with a 1pt increase to a new high of 46%.