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US ECI Disappoints But Still Very Solid

DATA REACT
  • There's a fair bit to pick from the larger than expected moderation in the ECI from 1.3% to 1.0% Q/Q in Q4 (cons. 0.2%).
  • The wages & salaries component eased from 1.5% to 1.1% Q/Q (the drop looking larger on rounding) and appeared relatively broad-based across major industries, barring bumper increases in 'trade & transportation' and construction plus a large outright decline in ever volatile financial services.
  • There were broadly similar pull backs in both private (1.6 to 1.2%) and public (1.0 to 0.7%) sectors.
  • So, softer than expected but still one of the strongest prints since the early to mid-2000s.
  • Eurodollars are up roughly 3 ticks across the curve following the release, which coincided with a broadly as-expected personal incomes/core PCE deflator report for December.
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