US EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Draw & Products Builds Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to show a draw of -2.35mbbls for the week ending 15 December according to a Bloomberg survey. US crude inventories last week fell, driven by a decline in imports and despite another unexpected drop in exports and lower refinery runs. Gulf Coast stocks fell for the third week amid efforts to avoid year end tax but Cushing stocks rose again to the highest since mid August. Oil exports out of Texas are surging in the final weeks of 2023 assisted by record production with strong supplies to China. USGC exports are expected to average 5mb/d in the final two weeks of 2023 according to Kpler having averaged 4mb/d in 2023 to date.
• US refinery utilisation dipped last week but was still above 90% after the recover from a low in early November. Utilisation is expected to rise by 0.3% this week according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline stocks are this week expected to show a build of +0.88mbpd and distillates a small build of +0.40mbpd according to a Bloomberg survey. Distillates stocks rose last week driven by an increase in imports and despite a drop in production. The US exports of diesel are at a record rate in December and over twice the level of November as delays at the Panama Canal shut out markets in the Pacific. Four week implied demand was still below the five year range last week and overall sentiment in the diesel market remains weak amid sluggish industrial activity.
• Gasoline stocks remain just below seasonal normal after a smaller than expected build last week driven by a rise in exports while four-week gasoline demand was slightly above 2022 levels. US gasoline demand in the week to Dec 16 rose 1.95% from the prior week estimated at 8.5326mbpd and was 1.3% above the four week average according to GasBuddy. European gasoline arrivals in the US climbed to 195kbpd but remain below the average of 283kbpd so far this year.
• The API data released last night showed a crude build of +0.94mbbls with a build of 1.85mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of +0.67bbls and distillates a build of +2.74mbbls.