US EIA Stocks Preview: Crude and Product Draws Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by -2.4mbbls for the week ending 11 Aug according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude inventories last week built after an increase in production, despite a large drop in crude exports and increase in refinery runs. Production increased to 12.6mbpd after spending the year so far between 12.2m and 12.4mbpd. Net imports of crude oil rose to the highest since January 2022. The oil adjustment figure was largely unchanged on the week after recent weekly changes. Cushing stocks are expected to resume the decline this week with AlphaBBL expecting a draw of -1.0mbbls. The WTI-Brent spread has drifted lower from around -3.8$/bbl last week back to around -4.4$/bbl.
• Total US oil product stocks are expected to decline further below normal with a gasoline draw of -1.5mbbls this week and distillates draw of -0.78mbbls according to a Bloomberg survey. Low inventories continue to support margins although spreads have drifted lower this week due to demand concerns. Weekly US gasoline demand was down by 1.4% w/w for the week ended August 12 according to GasBuddy data which placed demand at 8.92mn bpd. A decline is in line with seasonal expectations as the US summer driving season unwinds. Ship tracking shows European gasoline imports into the US increased by 40% w/w to 387k b/d in the week to 10 Aug according to Bloomberg.
• Gasoline and distillates stocks last week fell more than expected to keep levels well below normal with a fall in imports and increase in exports offsetting slightly higher production. Brazil is pulling in more US diesel volumes this month as flows from Russia slip according to Kpler. The US is shipping 66kb/d diesel to Brazil this month, more than double the July average. Distillates four-week average demand gained ground despite a small decline on the week.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of -6.2mbbls with a draw of -1.03mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of -0.76mbbls and distillates a build of +0.66mbbls.