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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates
Electoral College Projections:
- FiveThirtyEight reduces the overall number of EC votes for Biden to 278 from 289 as it moves Arizona from Lean Biden to Toss Up.
- The Economist moves Michigan from Lean to Likely Biden, while Ohio is shifted from Lean Trump to Toss-Up.
- Electoral Vote moves Iowa and Ohio from Tilt Trump to Toss Up and Tilt Biden Respectively.
Nationwide Polling:
- Seven polls since last update with all showing Biden leading. Largest lead for Biden in that period was 11 points with GSG/GBAO on September 21 (53%/42%). Average Biden lead in this period stood at 6.1%. Trump's highest support level at 47% in Rasmussen poll on Sep 22, with Biden's lowest 45% with HarrisX/The Hill on Sep 21.
Swing State Polling:
- Two latest polls from Ohio both show Biden leading Trump, 45%-44% and 45%-49% respectively. Former within the margin of error, but the first time Democrats have led in two consecutive polls since July.
- Four new Wisconsin polls all giving Biden the lead. Trump hasn't led a Wisconsin poll since Aug 23.
Senate Polling:
- Iowa and Kansas races added to chartpack. In Iowa, incumbent Senator Joni Ernst (R) is seeking a 2nd term, but is behind Democrat Theresa Greenfield. In Kansas, Roger Marshall (R) and Barbara Bollier (D) are neck-and-neck in the race to succeed five-term Senator Pat Roberts (R).
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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