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US Gasoline Futures Fall to Lowest Since Early July

OIL PRODUCTS

US gasoline futures fell to the lowest since early July this week on the expectation of lower demand as the US Labor Day holiday marked the end of the summer driving season. US Gasoline pump prices however have reached the highest seasonal level in more than a decade.

  • Front month RBOB is trading down to 2.57$/gal from a peak of 2.96$/gal on 11 August.
  • US weekly gasoline demand including the start of Labor Day weekend last week (Sun-Sat) increased by just 0.2% from the week prior according to GasBuddy. EIA data could show a much lower number than this due to stations pre-filling according to GasBuddy.
  • The US front month crack spread has fallen from a high of nearly 31.3$/bbl on 25 August to 21.6$/bbl.
  • Low US inventories however continue to provide support with stocks unlikely to receive much of a boost amid the upcoming refinery maintenance period in Sep and Oct.
  • The lack of spare capacity in the global refinery system could add to future price volatility with ongoing sensitivity to any unexpected outages.
    • RBOB OCT 23 down -0.3% at 2.57$/gal
    • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 21.65$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.3$/bbl at 13.91$/bbl

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