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US: Harris Hopes For Favourable Economic Data To Boost Economic Arguement

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Senior Democrats are hopeful that three economic data releases this week on GDP, inflation, and jobs can offer a final argument for Harris to sway voters on the economy. 

  • Axios notes: “On Wednesday, new GDP data for the third quarter will show the economy expanded at a robust 3%, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.Then Thursday, a closely watched inflation measure is likely to show the lowest rate of price increases since early 2021. On Friday, the jobs report should show the lowest pre-election unemployment rate in 24 years — 4.1% in October, according to forecasters.”
  • USA Today notes: “Gas prices and mortgage rates are down. Inflation-adjusted incomes are up. And consumer confidence is tepid but well above the threshold that historically has signaled a recession. In past presidential races, those kinds of economic vital signs have reliably foreshadowed victory for the incumbent party in the White House. “
  • USA Today notes that “Moody’s Analytics' final election computer model says there’s a 55.5% chance Harris will narrowly win based largely on those positive indicators.”
  • Moody’s economist Justin Begley saidthe firm’s election model gives Harris a slight majority of the vote in enough of the seven swing states to nudge her to an Electoral College victory: “That’s a tailwind for Harris. Perceptions of the economy aren’t outweighing the hard data in our model.”
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Senior Democrats are hopeful that three economic data releases this week on GDP, inflation, and jobs can offer a final argument for Harris to sway voters on the economy. 

  • Axios notes: “On Wednesday, new GDP data for the third quarter will show the economy expanded at a robust 3%, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.Then Thursday, a closely watched inflation measure is likely to show the lowest rate of price increases since early 2021. On Friday, the jobs report should show the lowest pre-election unemployment rate in 24 years — 4.1% in October, according to forecasters.”
  • USA Today notes: “Gas prices and mortgage rates are down. Inflation-adjusted incomes are up. And consumer confidence is tepid but well above the threshold that historically has signaled a recession. In past presidential races, those kinds of economic vital signs have reliably foreshadowed victory for the incumbent party in the White House. “
  • USA Today notes that “Moody’s Analytics' final election computer model says there’s a 55.5% chance Harris will narrowly win based largely on those positive indicators.”
  • Moody’s economist Justin Begley saidthe firm’s election model gives Harris a slight majority of the vote in enough of the seven swing states to nudge her to an Electoral College victory: “That’s a tailwind for Harris. Perceptions of the economy aren’t outweighing the hard data in our model.”