US LNG Netbacks Decline but Still Just Favour Europe

The US LNG netbacks for July just favour supplies to Europe over Asia with the profitability to Europe at 6.17$/mmbtu and Asia at 6.09$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg. The netbacks for the remaining summer months are also just showing a premium to Europe over Asia with the November US netback to Europe over 1$/mmbtu higher than to Asia.

• The front month JKM-TTF spread is today at the highest since mid-February at around +1.0$/mmbtu.
• LNG net import flows to Europe have dipped slightly this month but remain above the five year range for the time of year. Total European sendout was just over 470mcm/d on 22 May with supplies covering for missing Norwegian imports during the current maintenance period.
• A total of 69 vessels have already unloaded in NW Europe so far this month with another 22 currently scheduled before the end of May. Over 65% of cargoes due this month have originated from US while Russia is the second biggest supplier. A record 97 cargoes arrived in April beating the previous high of 89 arrivals in December.
  • TTF JUN 23 down -3.4% at 28.14€/MWh
  • NBP JUN 23 down -1% at 65.5p/th
  • JKM Jun 23 up 1.2% at 9.87$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Jun 23 up 0.6$/mmbtu at 1.04$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas JUN 23 up 2.8% at 2.39$/mmbtu