US Natgas Edges Lower on Higher Production and Lower LNG Exports

US Natgas is edging lower as the EIA lower the price forecast for 2023 in the latest EIA short term energy report.

• US Natgas MAR 23 down -1% at 2.56$/mmbtu
• EIA revised down its forecast for US Henry Hub gas prices after the warm weather and lower demand in Jan which allowed inventories to build. They lowered the 2023 forecast to average 3.40$/mmbtu, down from previous estimates of 4.90$/mmbtu and down almost 50% from last year.
• The NOAA weather forecast is once again largely unchanged with above normal temperatures in the east and below normal in the west in the 6-14 day period. Domestic demand is today estimated at 85.7bcf/d.
• US Natural gas production has picked back up in recent days to 101.7bcf/d yesterday after a slight dip below 100bcf/d last week.
• Deliveries to US LNG export terminals are today down to 11.9bcf/d due to a reduction in supply to Sabine Pass LNG. Bloomberg data shows small flows to Freeport LNG with no further indication of when the facility is likely to resume operations. The small natural gas flows to Freeport resumed on Wednesday after stopping for a day on Tuesday according to Refinitiv data.