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US Open; Estee struggles on China weakness

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

CDX opens flat, S&P futures similar. High-grade and $ issuer Estee Lauder (EL) is down -5% in pre-market after giving guidance for FY25 (to June) sales to be -1 to +2% (c+6%) with 1Q to be down between -3-5% (c9%). We mention Estee because it is a comp in beauty retail to local issuer and rising star hopeful Coty. Estee is flagging China weakness (both in-country and travel retail spend) which Coty has less exposure to (APAC 13% vs. 33% for EL). Weakness in China was flagged by L'Oréal too (North Asia -1.7% with declining momentum) who reported firm growth in all other regions. Coty reports FY24 earnings on 20th of August after US close; consensus is looking for LFL 5% growth in the 4Q and 6% for next year. Bulk of deleveraging/path to IG ratings will come on tabled divestiture of remaining 26%/$1.1b stake in haircare co, Wella.

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