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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: JPM Stick With 50bp Fed Cut Call For Next Week

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • "The rise in core CPI was the largest since April, a reminder that inflation pressures haven’t fully dissipated. Our prediction remains that the FOMC will cut 50bps next week, but at the margin today’s CPI report may incline some members toward a 25bps cut."
  • "They will also consider though what is likely to be a less worrying PCE deflator: after today’s report our early prediction is that core CPE will rise 0.13%m/m, which would just round up the y/y rate to 2.7% from 2.6% in July, but leave the three-month annualized pace at a reasonable 1.8%. That forecast will be refined following the release of PPI and import prices later this week. Once all the data is in hand we will further discuss the implications for the Fed in our FOMC meeting preview at the end of the week."
  • Citi and Wells Fargo earlier switched from 50bps to 25bps for next week, although Citi expected it to be followed by 50bp cuts in both Nov and Dec.
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