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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Won't Have Clean Jobs Data For A Few Months - Jefferies

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Jefferies see nonfarm payrolls growth of 115k in October, with private rising 95k and manufacturing -40k.
  • “Were it not for the Boeing strike and the storms, we would have been somewhere around +165k.”
  • “The storm disruptions will likely have the biggest impact on the workweek, which we expect to drop 0.3 hours to 33.9. The reduction in hours will boost average hourly earnings, so we are looking for a +0.5% m/m sequential increase.”
  • They warn that “The distortions to this data make the report difficult to rely on, and we doubt that the Fed will be motivated to change tack on policy based on the tone of the data. Similarly, the drag in October will likely be reversed in November, so we doubt we will have a clean look at the payroll data for the next few months.”
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  • Jefferies see nonfarm payrolls growth of 115k in October, with private rising 95k and manufacturing -40k.
  • “Were it not for the Boeing strike and the storms, we would have been somewhere around +165k.”
  • “The storm disruptions will likely have the biggest impact on the workweek, which we expect to drop 0.3 hours to 33.9. The reduction in hours will boost average hourly earnings, so we are looking for a +0.5% m/m sequential increase.”
  • They warn that “The distortions to this data make the report difficult to rely on, and we doubt that the Fed will be motivated to change tack on policy based on the tone of the data. Similarly, the drag in October will likely be reversed in November, so we doubt we will have a clean look at the payroll data for the next few months.”