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US: Probability Of Senator Rick Scott Winning Senate Leadership Recedes

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Senate Republicans will hold an internal, closed ballot, election for their leadership tomorrow. The race to replace the outgoing Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has transformed into a proxy struggle between Senate orthodoxy represented by Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-SD) and Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and the Trump-aligned media ecosystem, represented by Senator Rick Scott (R-FL).

  • NBC notes: “The battle will gauge the staying power of long-serving senior Republicans grounded in an institutionalist view of the Senate... against an emboldened pro-Trump wing looking to smash any vestiges of the old GOP...”
  • Public endorsements from prominent Republicans like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson fired Scott into poll position on prediction markets temporarily. But that buzz has since receded, with Thune now given a 63% implied probability of winning on Polymarket.
  • Trump has declined to endorse a candidate, with strategists noting that Trump’s direct involvement could compel the traditionally independent chamber to reject Scott. Trump’s only official demand is that the next Majority Leader support “recess appointments.” The move would allow Trump to bypass Senate scrutiny for executive branch confirmations and may turn off some institutionally minded Republican senators.
  • Scott said in an interview: “My pitch is pretty simple. I’m a business guy who gets things done, and I’m completely on board with Donald Trump’s agenda. It’s as simple as that… As a conference, not me, but as a conference, we will be very clear about what we’ll accomplish. It will be identical to the Trump agenda.”
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Senate Republicans will hold an internal, closed ballot, election for their leadership tomorrow. The race to replace the outgoing Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has transformed into a proxy struggle between Senate orthodoxy represented by Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-SD) and Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and the Trump-aligned media ecosystem, represented by Senator Rick Scott (R-FL).

  • NBC notes: “The battle will gauge the staying power of long-serving senior Republicans grounded in an institutionalist view of the Senate... against an emboldened pro-Trump wing looking to smash any vestiges of the old GOP...”
  • Public endorsements from prominent Republicans like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson fired Scott into poll position on prediction markets temporarily. But that buzz has since receded, with Thune now given a 63% implied probability of winning on Polymarket.
  • Trump has declined to endorse a candidate, with strategists noting that Trump’s direct involvement could compel the traditionally independent chamber to reject Scott. Trump’s only official demand is that the next Majority Leader support “recess appointments.” The move would allow Trump to bypass Senate scrutiny for executive branch confirmations and may turn off some institutionally minded Republican senators.
  • Scott said in an interview: “My pitch is pretty simple. I’m a business guy who gets things done, and I’m completely on board with Donald Trump’s agenda. It’s as simple as that… As a conference, not me, but as a conference, we will be very clear about what we’ll accomplish. It will be identical to the Trump agenda.”