US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Apr-19   Mar-19   Feb-19   Jan-19   Dec-18   Nov-18

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                        197/207  224/220  230/225  221/224  213/225  223/219

wk 2                        193/201  216/220  231/229  217/223  220/224  224/221

wk 3                        230/206  212/217  213/229  211/220  223/221  234/224

wk 4                                 204/214  224/225  244/223  231/222  229/227

wk 5                                          218/221

Nonfarm Payrolls                       +196k     +33k    +312k    +227k    +196k

Private Payrolls                       +182k     +28k    +297k    +224k    +200k

Mfg Payroll                              -6k      +1k     +17k     +20k     +27k

Unemployment                            3.8%     3.8%     4.0%     3.9%     3.7%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.4     34.5     34.5     34.4

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.7     40.7     40.8     40.9     40.8

Aggr Hours Index                       +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.5%    -0.2%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                    Flat    -0.2%    -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%

Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.3%

Final Demand PPI                       +0.6%    +0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%

excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.3%     Flat    +0.3%

excl food, energy, trade                Flat    +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat    +0.3%

CPI                                    +0.4%    +0.2%     Flat     Flat     Flat

excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Import Prices                          +0.6%     +0.6    +0.1%    -1.4%    -1.6%

non-petro import prices                +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%    +0.1%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 54.3     49.4     49.6     54.9     60.7

PCE Price Index M/M                    +0.2%    +0.1%     Flat    +0.1%     +0.1

PCE Price Index Y/Y                    +1.5%    +1.3%    +1.4%    +1.8%    +1.8%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                Flat    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y               +1.6%    +1.7%    +1.8%    +2.0%    +1.9%

Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$146.9    +$8.7   -$13.5  -$204.9

Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$15.2   +$17.7   +$15.4   +$22.1

CB Consumer Confidence                 124.1    131.4    121.7    126.6    136.4

Consumer Sentiment             96.9     98.5     93.8     91.2     98.3     97.5

Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                     2.6      2.4      2.5      2.6      2.5

Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,

Saar (mn)                                5.0      4.7      4.6      5.0      4.9

Total Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                     7.6      7.1      7.1      7.5      7.4

Retail Sales                           +1.6%    -0.2%    +0.8%    -1.6%     Flat

excl motor vehicles                    +1.2%    -0.2%    +1.4%    -2.1%    -0.1%

Personal Income                        +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.1%    +1.0%    +0.3%

Personal Spending                      +0.9%    +0.1%    +0.3%    -0.6%    +0.5%

ISM Mfg Index                           55.3     54.2     56.6     54.3     58.8

ISM Nonmfg NMI                          56.1     59.7     56.7     58.0     60.4

MNI Chicago Report                      58.7     64.7     56.7     63.8     63.5

Phila Fed Mfg Index             8.5     13.7     -4.1     17.0      9.1     11.9

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index         21.0     21.7     10.0      1.0      7.7     35.5

Empire State Index             10.1      3.7      8.8      3.9     11.5     21.4

KC Fed Mfg Index                          10        1        5        6       17

Richmond Fed Mfg Index            3       10       16       -2       -8       14

Dallas Fed Mfg Index            2.0      6.9     13.1      1.0     -5.1     17.6

Markit Mfg Index               52.4     52.4     53.0     54.9     53.8     55.4

Markit Services Index          52.9     55.3     56.0     54.2     54.4     54.7

Ind Production                         -0.1%     +0.1    -0.3%     Flat    +0.7%

Capacity Util                          78.8%    79.0%    79.1%    79.5%    79.6%

Factory Orders                                  -0.5%     Flat    +0.1%    -0.5%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                       +0.3%    -0.1%    -0.5%    -1.3%

Durables                               +2.7%    -1.1%    +0.1%    +1.3%    +0.9%

Durables ex transport                  +0.4%    -0.2%    -0.1%    +0.3%    -0.2%

Nondurables                                     +0.6%    -0.1%    -1.1%    -2.0%

Mfg Shipments                                            -0.2%    -0.2%    +1.0%

Business Inventories                            +0.3%    +0.9%    +0.8%     Flat

Factory                                         +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.1%    -0.1%

Retail                                          +0.3%    +0.8%    +1.1%    -0.4%

Wholesale                                       +0.2%    +1.2%    +1.1%    +0.4%

Housing Starts (mn)                    1.139    1.142    1.298    1.140    1.206

Building Permits (mn)                  1.288    1.291    1.317    1.326    1.322

NAHB Index                       63       62       62       58       56       60

New Home Sales (k)                       692      662      625      588      628

Existing Homes (mn)                     5.21     5.48     4.93     5.00     5.21

Pending Home Sales Index                        101.9    103.2     99.0    101.2

Construct Spending                              +1.0%    +2.5%    +0.2%    -1.3%

Private Residential                             +0.2%    +1.5%    +0.8%    -0.6%

Trade Balance (bn)                             -$49.4   -$51.1   -$59.9   -$50.5

Exports (bn)                                  +$209.7  +$207.3  +$205.4  +$209.3

Imports (bn)                                  +$259.1  +$258.5  +$265.4  +$259.9

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$72.0   -$73.2   -$81.5   -$72.6

Leading Index                          +0.4%    +0.1%     Flat    -0.1%    +0.2%

                                       Q1-19                      Q4-18

GDP (chain-wt)                         +3.2%                      +2.2%

Final Sales                            +2.5%                      +2.1%

Chain prices                           +0.9%                      +1.7%

Current-dollar                         +3.8%                      +4.1%

                                                                  Q4-18

Nonfarm Productivity                                              +1.9%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                          +2.0%

                                                                  Q4-18

ECI (q/q)                                                         +0.7%

(a) advance report

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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