US: Republicans' Electoral College Advantage Fading, NYT

The New York Times has published analysissuggesting that former President Donald Trump's Electoral College advantage, relative to the national popular vote "has declined significantly."

• Nate Cohen at the NYT notes that, "there’s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: [Trump's] once formidable advantage in the Electoral College is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking."
• The Times analysis is based on the difference between the national popular vote and the vote in the “tipping-point” state, which right now appears to be Wisconsin, according to the NYT polling averages.
• Trump's advantage in Wisconsin (roughly 1.8%) is only, "around one-fifth as large as it was four years ago, when President Biden fared 3.8 points better nationally than in Wisconsin."
• The Times analysis is at odds with conventional wisdom, but there has been recent speculation that the consensus position could begin to shift in the coming days if polling continues to throw out comparably tight national and swing state numbers.
• Nate Silver's election forecast model shows a 20% implied probability that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, suggesting that his data correlates with a larger Electoral College advantage for Trump.  
• However, Silver's model views Pennsylvania as the most likely tipping point state and, considering Harris is 2.9% ahead in the national vote and only 1.8% ahead in Pennsylvania, Silver's numbers track relatively closely with Cohen's. 

Figure 1: Electoral College Advantage 

Source: New York Times