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US Returning To Higher Fed Rate Path

STIR FUTURES
  • Post Presidents Day, Fed Funds implied hikes show 29bp for Mar (+1.5bp from Fri close), a cumulative 53bp for May (+2bp), 73bp to 5.31% terminal in Jul (+3bp) before cutting to 5.11% in Dec (+5bp).
  • That terminal sits fractionally off Friday’s fresh cycle highs whilst the 20bps of cuts from peak to year-end remains within last week’s range having been trimmed heavily prior to that (incl 50bp prior to payrolls).
  • Next scheduled Fed commentary not until tomorrow’s FOMC minutes followed by NY Fed’s Williams.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg


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