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US Shale Oil Production Growth Estimate Reduced: BNEF

OIL

US oil production will be 100kbpd lower than previously expected at an average of 12.75mbpd this year according to a report from BNEF.

  • The report suggests shale output may be struggling to keep up as more production shifts overseas with US output dependent on the number of well completions and improvements in average output per well.
  • Growth in 2024 is expected at 430kbpd and about half the 850kbpd from this year while 2025 will see an even smaller increase of 240kbpd. The US oil production forecast for 2025 is 13.42mbpd.
  • Many independent exploration and production companies remain committed to annual oil production growth of up to 5%.
  • Average oil output per well already peaked in 2021 in the Delaware Basin of the Permian, where wells are much more productive than the region’s older Midland Basin.
  • Ongoing efficiency gains are necessary for US oil producers to stay competitive. SLB estimates 80% of new oil projects have a sub-50$/bbl breakeven price.


Source: Bloomberg

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