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US: Soft Payrolls Again At Odds With Strong Household Survey

DATA REACT
  • Even after sizeable prior revisions, weaker-than-expected payrolls growth was once again at odds with a strong household survey, with total payrolls +199k (cons 447k) vs household employment up +651k.
  • There was another large drop in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 3.9% (cons 4.1%) on household employment strength.
  • The participation rate was unchanged after it was revised up a tenth to 61.9% as it slowly crawls back towards pre-covid levels. There was a similar story in prime age (25-54yr) participation too, also unchanged at an upward revised 81.9% and the highest post-Covid but still ~1ppt from the levels immediately prior.
  • In a sign of getting towards maximum employment, lower unemployment was met with even stronger wage growth. Average hourly earnings were up 0.61% M/M after 0.35% M/M (revised up a tenth on rounding).
  • There was reasonable dispersion across categories, with particularly large gains in utilities and information-based jobs after a weak Nov but it’s nevertheless a strong print.
  • There was a similar strength in the non-supervisory measure (the bottom 80% of employment), which continues to outstrip total wage growth with 0.68% M/M after 0.46% M/M.
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