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US TSYS SUMMARY: US Treasury yields usually follow the yen movement in
meticulous fashion but this did not happen as the Treasury market initially
opened in Asia after the Labor Day break.
- The appreciation of the yen was not fully matched by the decline in the 10Y
Tsy yield but there has been a good relationship since the re-opening.
- Relative to Friday's close, the 10Y UST yield is down 2.3bp at 2.143% and the
curve is slightly flatter.
- Bill yields are slightly lower, particularly in the debt-ceiling sensitive
October area, even though 3 extra days have disappeared before the debt ceiling
will be hit.
- The Bond contract has performed extremely poorly relative to the rest of the
curve. The decline in the T 4.5% Feb-36, the CTD into the Bond is down by only
0.8bp today, the ultra Bond contract is also performing badly. Late Friday, CFTC
data showed asset managers have significantly upped their Ultra 30Y longs to the
- Data sees factory and durable goods orders. Brainard talks at 1130GMT.