US: Trump Takes Lead Across Most Major Election Forecast Models

Former President Donald Trump has now overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris on most of the major presidential election forecast models, including 538, Silver Bulletin, The Economist, and DDHQ. 

• While the race remains a toss-up, the probability shift comes after a strong two-week polling period for Trump in two of the northern swing states: Michigan and Wisconsin and a hardening of his slight edge in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
• It should be noted that momentum can often be overstated in a presidential election cycle, with polling often providing multiple swings, rather than a straight trend line.
• 538 notes: "...a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate."
• It should also be noted that all the seven key swing states remain within the margin of error for polling, meaning that the election may ultimately be determined by which direction a potential polling miss goes.
• A Washington Post-Schar poll of more than 5,000 registered voters released today finds, "47 percent who say they will definitely or probably support Harris while 47 percent say they will definitely or probably support Trump. Among likely voters, 49 percent support Harris and 48 percent back Trump."

Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast Model