US TSYS: BULL FLATTENING POST DATA, ATL FED Q1 GDP EST 1.9%

US TSY SUMMARY: Slow-mo react on weaker than expected retail sales -0.1% vs.

+0.4%. Some early chop with Tsys reversing early gains on brief surge in

equities. Tsys rebound/make new session highs after Atlanta Fed lowered 1Q GDP

est to 1.9%, several dealers following suit citing weak retail sales. Minor

revision fail to balance the weaker Feb read while PPI ex food and energy comes

out flat to

prior month. Sharp drop in equities and US$/Yen added to sharp bull curve

flattening.

- US$ index off lows late (DXY +.047, 89.711); equities weak (emini -20.0,

2752.75); gold little weaker (XAU -.89, 1325.56); West Texas crude little firmer

(WTI +.16, 60.87).

- Short end under pressure/narrow range ahead next week Wed's FOMC policy annc,

.25bp hike priced in, mkt will be paying close attn to SEP, Fed Powell presser.

Mixed flow in first half followed by better real$, fast$ and bank buying in

intermediates to long end, light deal-tied flow, swap-tied receivers in 2s-5s.

- Late ylds: 2Y 2.256%, 3Y 2.402%, 5Y 2.605%, 7Y 2.745%, 10Y 2.812%, 30Y 3.052%

US TSY FUTURES: Higher across the curve by the bell, near midday highs

w/equities swooning again (emini -22.0, 2751.0). Late curve update:

* 2s10s -3.508, 54.953 (58.279H/54.771L);

* 2s30s -4.866, 79.149 (83.853H/78.988L);

* 5s30s -3.273, 45.558 (47.668H/44.314L);

Current futures levels:

* Jun Ultra bonds up 1-10/32 at 158-03 (156-23L/158-09H)

* Jun 30-yr Bond futures up 28/32 at 145-00 (144-03L/145-04H)

* Jun 10-yr futures up 7.5/32 at 120-18 (120-07.5L/120-22H)

* Jun 5-yr futures up 3.5/32 at 114-06.25 (113-31.75L/114-08.75H)

* Jun 2-yr futures up 0.75/32 at 106-09.25 (106-07.25L/106-10.25H)

US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Modestly higher for the most part by the bell, near

top end of range, short end underperforming on narrow range ahead next week's

FOMC. Current White pack (Mar'18-Dec'18):

* Mar'18 -0.010 at 97.812

* Jun'18 +0.005 at 97.700

* Sep'18 +0.010 at 97.600

* Dec'18 +0.015 at 97.475

* Red pack (Mar'19-Dec'19) +0.020-0.030

* Green pack (Mar'20-Dec'20) +0.035

* Blue pack (Mar'21-Dec'21) +0.030-0.035 

* Gold pack (Mar'22-Dec'22) +0.030-0.035

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles, 

* O/N +0.0000 to 1.4450 (-0.0019/wk)

* 1 Month +0.0098 to 1.7864% (+0.0361/wk)

* 3 Month +0.0205 to 2.1450% (+0.0553/wk)

* 6 Month +0.0169 to 2.3211% (+0.0525/wk)

* 1 Year at 2.5901

US SWAPS: Spds running tighter by the bell, unwinding portion of Tue's move.

Short end leading move all session while long end revered early wides. Better

receivers in 2-5s on day, steady inflow of smaller prints. Flow by late morning

included 5Y switch around 2.77611%, $200M receiver 4s at 2.74313%, $240M

receiver 3s at 2.6905%, over $250M receiver 10s at 2.8755%, a lot of two-way

noise in 7s around 2.72779%. Latest spread levels:

* 2Y  -0.81/31.62

* 5Y  -0.12/15.75

* 10Y -0.25/4.62

* 30Y -0.25/-14.00

PIPELINE: $2B ADB 3Y priced, $1.5B McDonalds 3-part Launch; $3.47B Priced Tue,

$16.57B/wk

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:

03/14 $2B *African Development Bank 3Y MS-1

03/14 $1.5B #McDonalds, $500M 5Y +75, $500M 10Y +100, $500M Tap of 4.45% +140

-

$3.47B Priced Tuesday

03/13 $3.25B *Asian Development Bank (ADB) 5Y +9

03/13 $220M *Idaho Power 30Y +110

OUTLOOK: Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

- Mar 15 10-Mar jobless claims (231k, 228k) 0830ET 

- Mar 15 Feb imports price index (1.0%, 0.3%) 0830ET 

- Mar 15 Feb exports price index (0.8%, --) 0830ET 

- Mar 15 Mar Empire Manufacturing Index (13.1, 15.0) 0830ET 

- Mar 15 Mar Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (25.8, 24.0) 0830ET 

- Mar 15 11-Mar Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET 

- Mar 15 Mar NAHB home builder index (72, --) 1000ET 

- Mar 15 09-Mar natural gas stocks w/w (-57Bcf, --) 1030ET 

- Mar 15 Jan net TICS flows 1600ET 

- Mar 15 Jan long term TICS flows 1600ET 

- Mar 15 14-Mar Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary

Eurodollar options, Pit/screen: reminder, March futures/options expire Friday

* +10,000 Dec 70/71/72/73 put condors 0.5 over the Dec 78 calls

* -16,500 Red Jun'19 75/80 2x1 put spds 14.0 over the short Jun 75/80 2x1 put

spds

* -20,000 Red Dec 65/70 put spds, 14.5 

* +25,000 short Apr 75 puts, 0.5

* +10,000 short Apr 71/72 put spds, 4.0 vs. 97.275/0.25%

* -10,000 short Dec 75 calls 1.0 over the short Dec 67/70 put spds

* +5,000 short May 75/Blue May 73 call spds, 0.0/steepener

* +5,000 short Mar 75/76 2x1 put spds, 1.0

* -5,000 Red Mar 77/80/82 call flys, 1.5 vs. 97.36/0.10

* +20,000 Green Apr 67/70 2x1 put spds, 3.0

* +5,000 Green May 73 calls, 3.5

* -5,000 Green Mar 71/72 1x2 call spds, 2.0

* -1,000 Jun 77/short Jun 72 straddle strip, 1:1 and 1:2 at 38.0 and 53.0 resp

* -10,000 Blue Jun 67/72 call over risk reversals 4.5 vs. 97.095/0.45%

* -10,000 short Jun 70/71 put spds, 3.0 vs. 97.265, ongoing, adds to -20k sold

Tue

Block, 1104ET, 3x2 repeated 5k in pit at 4.0

* total 30,000 short Dec 75 calls, 9.5

* total 20,000 Blue Dec 72 calls, 16.5

* +8,000 short Jun 70/71 put spds, 3.0, ongoing buyer adds to +40k Tue

* 5,000 Jun 75/76 2x1 put spds, 1.75

* 3,500 short Jun 75 straddles, 28.0

Earlier flow includes

* 5,000 Jun 77/Green Jun 73 call spds, 0.0

* -2,000 Green Sep 72/73 put strip, 69.0 vs. 97.875

* +10,000 Jul 75/76 put spds 3.0 over Jul 77 calls

* +5,000 short Dec 72/77 call spds, 8.0

* -5,000 Blue Dec 71/75 call spds, 8.0

* +4,000 Apr 77/78 1x2 call spds, 1.0

* +4,000 Jun 77/78 1x2 call spds, 0.75

Latest Blocks,

* total +10,000 short Jun 70 puts, 3.0 at 0758:41-0759:54ET

* total -13,780 short Jun 70/72 put spds, 8.5 at 0757:07-0759:54ET

Tsy options, Pit/screen:

call buying in 5-year options, big tone change in directional hedging today

* over +63,000 FVJ 114.5 calls, 6/64, +50k in one piece. Open interest at 85,362

coming into the session

* 2,000 TYJ 119.5/120/120.5 put flys, 8/64 vs. 120-07

* Update, total +14,000 TUK 106.7/106.8 call spds, .5/64

* Update, total +12,000 TUK 106.7/106.8 call spds, .5/64

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]