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US TSYS: Firmer On Geopol Risks, State Payrolls and A Hawkish Schmid Ahead

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries are off highs but are still supported primarily by geopolitical spillover from Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine and Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory with ATACMS for the first time.
  • Cash yields are 4.7-5.9bp lower, with largest decline in 3s.
  • Curves are within recent ranges, including 2s10s at 13.5bps.
  • TYZ4 trades at 109-31+ (+ 11+) off an earlier high of 110-04. It sees strong cumulative volumes of 665k that are boosted by earlier than usual rolling activity owing to next week’s Thanksgiving holiday (earlier today a third of front month volumes were spread-related).
  • Resistance is seen at 110-12 (20-day EMA), which closely ties with a 4.30% 10Y yield equating to 110.11+, but the trend needle still points south with support at 108-18+ (1.236 proj of Oct 1-10-16 price swing).
  • Data: Housing starts/building permits Oct (0830ET), State-level payrolls and unemployment Oct (1000ET).
  • Fedspeak: Schmid on economic outlook and mon pol (1310ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B 42D CMB auction (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries are off highs but are still supported primarily by geopolitical spillover from Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine and Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory with ATACMS for the first time.
  • Cash yields are 4.7-5.9bp lower, with largest decline in 3s.
  • Curves are within recent ranges, including 2s10s at 13.5bps.
  • TYZ4 trades at 109-31+ (+ 11+) off an earlier high of 110-04. It sees strong cumulative volumes of 665k that are boosted by earlier than usual rolling activity owing to next week’s Thanksgiving holiday (earlier today a third of front month volumes were spread-related).
  • Resistance is seen at 110-12 (20-day EMA), which closely ties with a 4.30% 10Y yield equating to 110.11+, but the trend needle still points south with support at 108-18+ (1.236 proj of Oct 1-10-16 price swing).
  • Data: Housing starts/building permits Oct (0830ET), State-level payrolls and unemployment Oct (1000ET).
  • Fedspeak: Schmid on economic outlook and mon pol (1310ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B 42D CMB auction (1130ET)