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US TSYS: FOMC Minutes Help Front-End To Belly Pare Losses

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have extended the intraday bull steepening seen since the FOMC minutes, with 2s leading a paring of losses with yields 3.3bps lower post-minutes for only +0.6bp on the day.
  • 5Y yields have also declined 2.9bps since the minutes for +1.6bp on the day.
  • The lack of a more overtly hawkish message to the minutes potentially allowing bullish plays that were held back after a reasonable 5Y auction earlier, and another step slower for WTI futures on Israel’s security cabinet ceasefire approval geopolitical factors will also help.
  • 2s10s has lifted to 5bps (+4.2bps) after Monday’s dip back into inversion for the first time in over a month following the Bessent pick as Treasury Secretary.
  • TYZ4 has lifted to 110-11 (-06) for back towards the middle of the day’s relatively narrow range, off an earlier low of 110-05+.
  • Yesterday’s high of 110-18 is deemed corrective with the technical trend bearish. Support is seen at 109-14+ (Nov 20/21 high).
  • Tomorrow sees a particularly heavy docket including GDP revisions for Q3, monthly PCE for October and initial jobless claims, all broad forward ahead of Thanksgiving, before 7Y supply.
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  • Treasuries have extended the intraday bull steepening seen since the FOMC minutes, with 2s leading a paring of losses with yields 3.3bps lower post-minutes for only +0.6bp on the day.
  • 5Y yields have also declined 2.9bps since the minutes for +1.6bp on the day.
  • The lack of a more overtly hawkish message to the minutes potentially allowing bullish plays that were held back after a reasonable 5Y auction earlier, and another step slower for WTI futures on Israel’s security cabinet ceasefire approval geopolitical factors will also help.
  • 2s10s has lifted to 5bps (+4.2bps) after Monday’s dip back into inversion for the first time in over a month following the Bessent pick as Treasury Secretary.
  • TYZ4 has lifted to 110-11 (-06) for back towards the middle of the day’s relatively narrow range, off an earlier low of 110-05+.
  • Yesterday’s high of 110-18 is deemed corrective with the technical trend bearish. Support is seen at 109-14+ (Nov 20/21 high).
  • Tomorrow sees a particularly heavy docket including GDP revisions for Q3, monthly PCE for October and initial jobless claims, all broad forward ahead of Thanksgiving, before 7Y supply.