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US TSYS: Minimal Net Impact From Latest Trump Tariff Plans

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have pared earlier losses seen after President-elect Trump proposed an additional 10% tariff on China plus 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico.
  • It leaves cash yields just 0.5-1.5bp higher on the day, with 10s leading increases, broadly consolidating yesterday’s strong rally following Bessent’s pick as Treasury Sec, WTI sliding on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects and the strongest 2Y auction since July.
  • TYZ4 at 110-13 is at the higher end of the overnight range but is still 4 ticks lower on the day. Yesterday’s high of 110-18 cleared the 20-day EMA and opens 111-08 (50-day EMA) with gains considered corrective. Support is seen at 109-14+ (Nov 20/21 low).
  • Today’s data pick is the Conference Board survey with its labor differential still of note, but with greater data focus on tomorrow’s GDP and monthly PCE releases.
  • Attention later in the session will then turn to the 5Y auction after yesterday’s strong front-end demand before the FOMC minutes (MNI Preview here).
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg (0830ET), FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house prices Sep (0900ET), Conf Board consumer survey Nov (1000ET), New home sales Oct (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Nov (1000ET), Dallas Fed service Nov (1030ET)
  • Fedspeak: FOMC minutes (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US to sell $70bn 5-Year notes – 91282CMA6, US to sell $28bn 2Y FRN reopen - 91282CLT6 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US to sell $48bn 52-week bills, $80bn 41-day CMB (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have pared earlier losses seen after President-elect Trump proposed an additional 10% tariff on China plus 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico.
  • It leaves cash yields just 0.5-1.5bp higher on the day, with 10s leading increases, broadly consolidating yesterday’s strong rally following Bessent’s pick as Treasury Sec, WTI sliding on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects and the strongest 2Y auction since July.
  • TYZ4 at 110-13 is at the higher end of the overnight range but is still 4 ticks lower on the day. Yesterday’s high of 110-18 cleared the 20-day EMA and opens 111-08 (50-day EMA) with gains considered corrective. Support is seen at 109-14+ (Nov 20/21 low).
  • Today’s data pick is the Conference Board survey with its labor differential still of note, but with greater data focus on tomorrow’s GDP and monthly PCE releases.
  • Attention later in the session will then turn to the 5Y auction after yesterday’s strong front-end demand before the FOMC minutes (MNI Preview here).
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg (0830ET), FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house prices Sep (0900ET), Conf Board consumer survey Nov (1000ET), New home sales Oct (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Nov (1000ET), Dallas Fed service Nov (1030ET)
  • Fedspeak: FOMC minutes (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US to sell $70bn 5-Year notes – 91282CMA6, US to sell $28bn 2Y FRN reopen - 91282CLT6 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US to sell $48bn 52-week bills, $80bn 41-day CMB (1130ET)