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Free AccessUS TSYS RISE: SOFTISH 2Q 2.6% GDP, WEAK US$/YEN, N.KOREA FEAR
US TSYS SUMMARY: Treasuries ended Friday higher amid buying on less than
expected 2.6% 2Q GDP, black box buys then safe-haven bid as N.Korea reportedly
launched an ICBM missile into sea near Japan. Mkt saw light profit-taking but on
edge amid Japan/N.Korea news.
- Tsys began NY weaker then gained after GDP, and as black boxes did FX-tied
buying on weaker US$/yen, then light profit-taking as US$ rose. But market
overall had quiet summer Friday.
- However Tsys again saw FX-tied buying by black boxes as US dollar declined on
N.Korea missile news amid saw safe-haven buying.
- Tsy 10Y futures had 8:17am ET block buy of 5,000 TYU7 at 125-20; later Tsy
call buy of 5,000 TYU7 126.75 calls at '13 11:32am ET. Eurodlr Dec8 futures
bought at 98.24 for 9,000 contracts nr 9:04am ET. No high-grade corp bond
issuance. Tsys 2Y, 5Y tight RP. Fannie Mae priced $3B 3Y bnchmrk note: T+8.5bp
- US EURODLR OPTIONS: Large sales in Aug. put sprds, buys in Dec. put spreads
and Mar put flies.
**TSYS 3PM ET: 2Y 1.347%, 3Y 1.500%, 5Y 1.829%, 7Y 2.098%, 10Y 2.287%, 30Y
2.893%
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Tsy futures trading higher, curve bull flattening as
the long-end outperforms, following lower than expect US flash Q2 GDP and mild
flight-to-quality bid after N.Korea missile launch. Current futures levels:
* Sep Ultra bonds up 30/32 at 164-18 (163-05L/164-22H)
* Sep 30-yr Bond futures up 19/32 at 153-06 (152-03L/153-07H)
* Sep 10-yr futures up 3.5/32 at 125-30 (125-17.5L/125-31.5H)
* Sep 5-yr futures up 1.5/32 at 118-04.75 (117-30.25L/118-05.75H)
* Sep 2-yr futures up 0.25/32 at 108-05.5 (108-04L/108-06H)
US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Trading modestly higher, curve slightly flatter as
greens/blues outperform, having reversed earlier weakness in wake of softer than
expected US Q2 GDP estimate. Light selling seen in the long-end of the strip
during London session, gave way to decent buying in Red, Green and blue
contracts. Volume below 30-day avg. Current White pack
(Jun'17-Mar'18):
* Sep'17 +0.005 at 98.670
* Dec'17 +0.005 at 98.555
* Mar'18 +0.010 at 98.475
* Jun'18 +0.015 at 98.415
* Red pack (Sep'18-Jun'19) +0.015-0.020
* Green pack (Sep'19-Jun'20) +0.015-0.020
* Blue pack (Sep'20-Jun'21) +0.025-0.030
* Gold pack (Sep'21-Jun'22) -0.020-0.025
US SWAPS: Spreads are slightly tighter into Friday's close, with the 30-yr just
about outperforming. Flows light in afternoon session. Latest spread levels:
* 2Y -0.14/23.925
* 5Y -0.25/7.00
* 10Y -0.44/-4.25
* 30Y -0.875/-34.00
US OUTLOOK
Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
31-Jul * Jul ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index 58.68/-- 09:00am ET
31-Jul ** Jul MNI Chicago PMI 65.7/61.0 09:45am ET
31-Jul ** Jun NAR pending home sales index 108.5/-- 10:00am ET
31-Jul ** Jul Dallas Fed manufacturing index 15.0/ -- 10:30am ET
31-Jul US Tsy $39B 13-week T-bill auction 11:30am ET
31-Jul US Tsy $33B 26-week T-bill auction 11:30am ET
31-Jul * Jun farm prices 2.1%/-- % 15:00pm ET
Eurodollar/Treasury option summary
Eurodollar Option flow included:
Blocks:
Pit/screen:
* -10k Front Aug 98.625 puts at 0.25 -- total of 35k now sold at 0.25
* +5k Front Dec 85/83 put spread vs Dec 86/87 call spread at 1.25
* +10k Front Mar 83/82/81 put fly vs Jun 83/82/81 put fly at flat
* +10k short Aug 81/85 strangle at 0.5
* -3k Green Oct 77/75 put spread at 2.5 vs DEZ9 at 97.995
* +4k Red Jun 90 calls at 3.5
* +3.5k Short Oct 80 puts at 2 vs EDZ8 at 98.225
* -3k Short Dec 82 straddle at 23.25
* -2.5k Green Sep 81/78 1x2 put spread at 6 vs EDU9 at 98.09
* -5k Front Sep 86 straddles at 6.5 vs EDU7 at 98.66
* -5k Front Aug 86 Puts at 0.25 vs EDU7 at 98.67
* 2.5k Green Oct 77/75 put spread at 2.5 vs EDZ9 at 97.995
* +4k Green Dec 77/Gold Dec 72 put spread at 0.5
* -7.5k Front Sep 86 straddles at 6.5 vs EDU7 at 98.66
* +2.5k Green Oct 77/75 put spread at 2
* -6.5k Green Dec 81/73 put spread at 19
* -5k Front Dec 86/87 call spread at 2.5
* -10k Green Oct 78/82 squash at 1 vs EDZ9 at 98.045
* -2.5k Green Aug 81/0 strangle at 9.5 vs EDU9 at 98.085
US Tsy option flow included:
* +5k TYU7 126.75 calls at '13
* +7,849 TYU7 127.50 calls at '05
* -2.5k TYU7 128.50 calls at '02
US Tsy future block recap:
* +5k TYU7 @ 125-20 at 0817:52ET
--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6432; email: sheila.mullan@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MNUEQ$,M$U$$$,MR$$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.