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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Treasury Borrowing Estimates Confirm Jump Seen In Q125 (1/2)

US TSYS/SUPPLY
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Treasury's latest financing estimates - conveyed by their "Sources and Uses" table - is here (PDF).

  • For Q4, the marketable borrowing requirement has fallen to $546B (MNI had pencilled in $525B) from August's estimate of $565B, with Q125's marketable borrowing requirement of $823B a little above MNI's $800B estimate. See table below.
  • These are roughly in line with pre-announcement expectations, though the Q1 expected range among analysts had been $750B to $950B.
  • This probably won't move the needle much for Wednesday's Refunding Announcement - with Q4's lower estimate for borrowing there's little evidence that they are worried about ongoing deficit dynamics necessitating an increase in coupon sizes in the near future.
  • As such the expectation will still be that "forward guidance" on auction sizes is likely to remain unchanged Wednesday.
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Treasury's latest financing estimates - conveyed by their "Sources and Uses" table - is here (PDF).

  • For Q4, the marketable borrowing requirement has fallen to $546B (MNI had pencilled in $525B) from August's estimate of $565B, with Q125's marketable borrowing requirement of $823B a little above MNI's $800B estimate. See table below.
  • These are roughly in line with pre-announcement expectations, though the Q1 expected range among analysts had been $750B to $950B.
  • This probably won't move the needle much for Wednesday's Refunding Announcement - with Q4's lower estimate for borrowing there's little evidence that they are worried about ongoing deficit dynamics necessitating an increase in coupon sizes in the near future.
  • As such the expectation will still be that "forward guidance" on auction sizes is likely to remain unchanged Wednesday.