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US TSYS: Treasury Yields Recede Ahead Election, FOMC Event Risk

US TSYS
  • Treasuries recovered more than half of Friday's sell-off Monday, trimmed gains after September's final report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders showed continued weakness in recent demand for manufacturing orders and durable goods production.
  • At the moment, the Dec'24 10Y futures contract trades +11 at 110-12, 10Y yield -.0788 at 4.3049%, curves flatter: 2s10s -4.154 at 13.050, 5s30s -2.332 at 32.829.
  • Treasuries extended lows after the $58B 3Y note auction tailed 0.7bp: 4.152% high yield vs. 4.145% WI; 2.60x bid-to-cover vs. 2.45x prior. Peripheral stats see indirect take-up rebounds 70.62% vs. 56.87% prior; direct bidder take-up falls to new low of 9.62% vs. 23.97% prior; primary dealer take-up 19.75% vs. 19.17% prior.
  • Option desks reported better SOFR/Treasury put option volumes for the most part Monday, carry over from overnight as accounts continued to hedge or cover downside risk ahead of Tuesday's Presidential election and Thursday's FOMC rate announcement. Underlying futures remain firmer after midmorning gains trimmed.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 have receded from this morning's highs (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -24.6bp, Dec'24 -45.3bp (-45.8bp), Jan'25 -59.2bp (-60.3bp), Mar'25 -75.6bp (-77.1bp).
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