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US TSYS: Trump Steepening Trade In Full Flight, 30Y Supply Adds Pressure

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries have pushed to fresh lows in the long end of the curve as US desks join in the aftermath of the former President Trump set to return to the White House.
  • Cash yields are 10-24bps higher, with 30s leading the increases as the extension of the steepening theme plays out along with today's supply.
  • 30Y yields at 4.674% are +24bp for the largest daily increase since 2020.
  • 10Y yields at 4.473% (+20.5bp) are on track for a close above medium-term downtrend resistance drawn off the October ’23 high and have pushed through resistance at the June closing high (4.4670%). A clean break here would expose the May 29 closing high (4.6117%).
  • TYZ4 trades at 109-08+ (- 1-04+), close to overnight lows of 109-07 on substantial volumes of 1.8m. +5,000 TYZ4 109-10.5 bought through 109-09.5 post time offer at 0619:23ET helped with a short-lived lift off latest lows.
  • Support is seen at 109-05 (Fibo retrace of Apr-Sep bull cycle, cont) after which lies the round 109-00.
  • Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $25B 30Y Bond auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have pushed to fresh lows in the long end of the curve as US desks join in the aftermath of the former President Trump set to return to the White House.
  • Cash yields are 10-24bps higher, with 30s leading the increases as the extension of the steepening theme plays out along with today's supply.
  • 30Y yields at 4.674% are +24bp for the largest daily increase since 2020.
  • 10Y yields at 4.473% (+20.5bp) are on track for a close above medium-term downtrend resistance drawn off the October ’23 high and have pushed through resistance at the June closing high (4.4670%). A clean break here would expose the May 29 closing high (4.6117%).
  • TYZ4 trades at 109-08+ (- 1-04+), close to overnight lows of 109-07 on substantial volumes of 1.8m. +5,000 TYZ4 109-10.5 bought through 109-09.5 post time offer at 0619:23ET helped with a short-lived lift off latest lows.
  • Support is seen at 109-05 (Fibo retrace of Apr-Sep bull cycle, cont) after which lies the round 109-00.
  • Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $25B 30Y Bond auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)