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US TSYS: Tsys Support Eases After Chicago Fed Goolsbee Bbg Comments

US TSYS
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  • Treasury futures drifted off late session highs Friday, curves maintaining steeper profiles (2s10s +4.081 at 12.718; 5s30s +4.585 at 30.552) as short end rates outpace long Bonds.
  • Tsy Dec'24 10Y futures tapped 109-23.5 (+6) high, neared initial technical resistance above at 109-30.5/110-17.5 (High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA) before slipping to 109-14.5 at the moment. 10Y yield down to 4.4335% after climbing to 4.5007% high earlier, the first time above 4.5% since May 31 this morning.
  • Fast two-way trade as Treasury futures see-sawed lower after higher than expected Retail Sales for October and up-revisions for prior. Meanwhile, import/export price indexes come out higher than expected, while Empire Mfg jumps to late 2021 levels.
  • The Empire data had very strong internals: new orders soared 38 points to 28.0, with shipments up 35 points to 32.5. Labor market conditions were "stable" (number of employees edging down, average workweek edging up). This is a figure consistent witan ISM Manufacturing survey above 60, though of course that seems unlikely given it's recently been stuck in contractionary (<50) territory.
  • Treasury support eased after Chicago Fed Goolsbee said on Bbg TV that the "Fed may slow" the "pace of rate cuts as it nears neutral" and if the "current rate of inflation extended, it's too high". Next up: Richmond Fed Barkin is expected on Yahoo Finance at 1500ET.
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  • Treasury futures drifted off late session highs Friday, curves maintaining steeper profiles (2s10s +4.081 at 12.718; 5s30s +4.585 at 30.552) as short end rates outpace long Bonds.
  • Tsy Dec'24 10Y futures tapped 109-23.5 (+6) high, neared initial technical resistance above at 109-30.5/110-17.5 (High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA) before slipping to 109-14.5 at the moment. 10Y yield down to 4.4335% after climbing to 4.5007% high earlier, the first time above 4.5% since May 31 this morning.
  • Fast two-way trade as Treasury futures see-sawed lower after higher than expected Retail Sales for October and up-revisions for prior. Meanwhile, import/export price indexes come out higher than expected, while Empire Mfg jumps to late 2021 levels.
  • The Empire data had very strong internals: new orders soared 38 points to 28.0, with shipments up 35 points to 32.5. Labor market conditions were "stable" (number of employees edging down, average workweek edging up). This is a figure consistent witan ISM Manufacturing survey above 60, though of course that seems unlikely given it's recently been stuck in contractionary (<50) territory.
  • Treasury support eased after Chicago Fed Goolsbee said on Bbg TV that the "Fed may slow" the "pace of rate cuts as it nears neutral" and if the "current rate of inflation extended, it's too high". Next up: Richmond Fed Barkin is expected on Yahoo Finance at 1500ET.