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US TSYS: Tsys Yields Edge Higher, Curves Flattens On Trump Tariffs

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Cash tsys yields are trading slightly higher this morning, however ranges well inside Monday's. The curve has flattened, the 2s10s inverted briefly overnight, however now trades +1.6bps higher at 1.4bps.
  • The 2yr is +1.7bps at 4.286%, while the 10yr is +1.2bps at 4.285%. The 10yr is now -16.5bps since closing at its recent highs of 4.45% on Nov 13th, while the 2yr has only tightened 2.5bps.
  • Tsys futures are trading lower with TU -01⅛ at 102-21, while TY is -05 at 110-12
  • Earlier, Trump stated "we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America." He also said he would hit Canada & Mexico with a 25% tariff on “ALL products,” until such time as they stop drugs in particular "fentanyl" and "all Illegal Aliens" from entering the US. MXN & CAD plunged on these headlines while the BBDXY now trades 0.45% higher.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed for the near-term but the broader rally increasingly weighs further out into 2025. It leaves 14bp of cuts for Dec before a cumulative 20bp for Jan and 56bp for June.
  • Later today we have New Home sales, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence followed by FOMC minutes, a 2yr & 5yr Tsys auction and there will also be a string of Fed speakers ahead of a shortened Thanksgiving week.
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  • Cash tsys yields are trading slightly higher this morning, however ranges well inside Monday's. The curve has flattened, the 2s10s inverted briefly overnight, however now trades +1.6bps higher at 1.4bps.
  • The 2yr is +1.7bps at 4.286%, while the 10yr is +1.2bps at 4.285%. The 10yr is now -16.5bps since closing at its recent highs of 4.45% on Nov 13th, while the 2yr has only tightened 2.5bps.
  • Tsys futures are trading lower with TU -01⅛ at 102-21, while TY is -05 at 110-12
  • Earlier, Trump stated "we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America." He also said he would hit Canada & Mexico with a 25% tariff on “ALL products,” until such time as they stop drugs in particular "fentanyl" and "all Illegal Aliens" from entering the US. MXN & CAD plunged on these headlines while the BBDXY now trades 0.45% higher.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed for the near-term but the broader rally increasingly weighs further out into 2025. It leaves 14bp of cuts for Dec before a cumulative 20bp for Jan and 56bp for June.
  • Later today we have New Home sales, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence followed by FOMC minutes, a 2yr & 5yr Tsys auction and there will also be a string of Fed speakers ahead of a shortened Thanksgiving week.