US TSYS: Waiting For The Next FOMC Policy Annc

US TSY SUMMARY: Very quiet end to a generally quiet week what with limited data

and no Fed speak ahead next week's policy announcement. Rates traded firmer on

an inside range day, equities near highs in late trade (ESM0 +44.0). 

- Little/no react to Durables, rates mixed, long end firmer but well off highs

to lower half overnight range; modest volumes w/ TYM<240k after the open only

traded an additional 450k after the close to appr 670k.

- No tail-event headlines, couple highlights from Bbg include: "NEW YORK REPORTS

FEWEST NEW VIRUS DEATHS SINCE MARCH" and "TRUMP SIGNS $484 BILLION CORONAVIRUS

PACKAGE INTO LAW".

- NY Fed lowers daily avg Tsy sec buys to $10B from $15B

- Equity earnings pick up in earnest next week

- The 2-Yr yield is down 0.7bps at 0.2123%, 5-Yr is down 0.8bps at 0.3607%,

10-Yr is down 1.2bps at 0.5898%, and 30-Yr is down 1.2bps at 1.1685%

TECHNICALS:

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M0) Focus Still On 140-00  

*RES 4: 141-26   0.764 projection of Feb 2 - Mar 9 rally from Mar 19 low 

*RES 3: 140-24   High Mar 9 and key contract high

*RES 2: 140-00   Round number resistance

*RES 1: 139-22   High Apr 22

*PRICE: 139-02+ @ 16:15 BST, Apr 24

*SUP 1: 138-17   Low Apr 17

*SUP 2: 137-16   Low Apr 7 and key near-term support 

*SUP 3: 136-29+ Low Mar 24

*SUP 4: 136-16+  50-day EMA

10yr futures maintain a consolidative short-term tone. The outlook though

remains bullish. On Apr 7, prices found support at 137-16. This was also the

area where the 20-day EMA intersected on Apr 7 and the subsequent recovery is a

bullish development. Key short-term support is 137-16, Apr 7 low. While it

holds, the focus is on 140-00 and the contract high of 140-24 from Mar 9.

Initial support lies at 138-17, Apr 17 low. The bull trigger is 139-22.

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M0) New Normal

*RES 3: 100.000 - Handle Psychological Resistance

*RES 3: 99.951 - 123.6% Fib Projection

*RES 1: 99.780 - High Apr 01

*PRICE: 99.735 @ 16:16 BST Apr 24

*SUP 1: 99.440 - Low Mar 16

*SUP 2: 99.300 - Recent low (cont)

*SUP 3: 99.225 - Low Feb 6 and 13 (cont)

Aussie bond markets hold close to alltime highs following the RBA's venture into

bond markets which is clearly still propping up prices. The chart has now begun

to look overbought and a period of consolidation is now the most likely outcome.

A break of the Mar 16 low would trigger deeper short-term losses and open the

99.300 level, a recent low of the continuation chart.

AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M0) Needs to Find Firmer Footing

*RES 3: 99.5598 - 1.236 projection of the Jan 2 -Feb 4 rally from Feb 13 low 

*RES 2: 99.4850 - High Mar 10 and bull trigger 

*RES 1: 99.3600 - High Apr 01

*PRICE: 99.1250 @ 16:17 BST, Apr 24

*SUP 1: 98.6300 - Low Mar 18

*SUP 2: 98.5700 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 3: 98.1828 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Having flatlined for the past week or so, Aussie 10yr futures picked up slightly

across the past two sessions to inch back toward the April highs of 99.36. This

retains the broadly neutral outlook after recent acute intraday volatility and

negates the pre-existing downtrend and any further recovery eyes initially a

break of resistance at 99.3600, Mar 12 high. A break above here opens the

99.4850 bull trigger, Mar 10 high.

JGB TECHS: (M0): Firm to Firmer

*RES 3: 156.02 - High Mar 10 and key resistance 

*RES 2: 154.56 - High Mar 13

*RES 1: 153.50 - High Mar 16

*PRICE: 152.73 @ 16:17 BST, Apr 24

*SUP 1: 150.70 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

*SUP 2: 150.61 - Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: 150.00 - Psychological round number 

JGBs traded well for a second session Friday, narrowing the gap with the first

upside target at 153.50. Further reports that the BoJ could consider unlimited

bond buying continue to support, making a further upside break a stronger

prospect. Targets remain at 153.50 initially ahead of 154.56. To the downside,

targets sit at the 151.52 low, which opens 150.61 next as well as the

psychological 150.00 handle further out.

MONTH-END EXTENSIONS: *** Preliminary Bloomberg-Barclays US month-end index

extension. Not a surprise, note significant changes to forecast summary compared

to the avg increase for prior year and the same time in 2019. TIPS 0.12Y; Govt

inflation-linked, 0.20.

*........................EST.....1Y Avg Incr..Last Year

*US Tsys.................0.14........0.08........0.07

*Agencies................0.04........0.10........0.08

*Credit..................0.19........0.09........0.04

*Govt/Credit.............0.18........0.08........0.05

*MBS.....................0.03........0.06........0.05

*Aggregate...............0.08........0.08........0.06

*Long Govt/Credit........0.04........0.09........0.06

*Interm Credit...........0.19........0.08........0.06

*Interm Govt.............0.11........0.08........0.07

*Interm Govt/Cred........0.14........0.08........0.06

*High Yield..............0.08........0.06........0.06

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Synopsis of next week's Tsy bill/note auctions

DATE     TIME   AMOUNT   SECURITY    (CUSIP)/ANNC

------------------------------------------------

27 Apr  1130ET   $48B    26W Bill     9127962T5

27 Apr  1130ET   $42B    2Y Note      912828ZM5

27 Apr  1300ET   $57B    13W Bill     912796WY1

27 Apr  1300ET   $43B    5Y Note      912828ZL7

28 Apr  1130ET   $55B    43D Bill     912796TZ2

28 Apr  1130ET   $22B    2Y Note FRN  912828ZK9

28 Apr  1300ET   $35B    7Y Note      912828ZN3

29 Apr  1130ET   $25B   119D Bill     912796XG9

29 Apr  1130ET   $25B   273D Bill     912796UC1

TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Moderately higher after the close, long end extending session

highs late (even though NY Fed continued to reduce weekly Tsy security purchase

operations ($10B from $15B), sources point out ongoing MBS buys -- combined

equal appr $400B/month. Update: 

* 3M10Y  -2.187, 47.031 (L: 39.098 / H: 50.782)

* 2Y10Y  -0.496, 37.341 (L: 35.633 / H: 40.013)

* 2Y30Y  -0.849, 94.929 (L: 92.766 / H: 98.787)

* 5Y30Y  -0.599, 80.287 (L: 79.17 / H: 83.471); Current futures levels:

* Jun 2-Yr futures up 0.25/32 at 110-5.875 (L: 110-04.875 / H: 110-06.25)

* Jun 5-Yr futures up 1.25/32 at 125-12.75 (L: 125-09.5 / H: 125-13.75)

* Jun 10-Yr futures up 3/32 at 139-3.5 (L: 138-28.5 / H: 139-07.5)

* Jun 30-Yr futures up 21/32 at 182-2 (L: 181-08 / H: 182-11)

* Jun Ultra futures up 1-7/32 at 228-23 (L: 227-09 / H: 229-23

US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Trades steady/mixed after the bell, Reds

underperforming, lead quarterly EDM0 near highs since 3M LIBOR set' -0.1042 to

0.8871% (-0.2219/wk). Update: 

* Jun 20 +0.045 at 99.60

* Sep 20 +0.025 at 99.675

* Dec 20 +0.015 at 99.650

* Mar 21 +0.010 at 99.720

* Red Pack (Jun 21-Mar 22) -0.005 to steady

* Green Pack (Jun 22-Mar 23) -0.005 to +0.005

* Blue Pack (Jun 23-Mar 24) +0.005 to +0.015

* Gold Pack (Jun 24-Mar 25) +0.015

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles

* O/N -0.0015 at 0.0567% (-0.0103/wk)

* 1 Month -0.0464 to 0.4409% (-0.2318/wk)

* 3 Month -0.1042 to 0.8871% (-0.2219/wk) 

* 6 Month -0.0430 to 0.9222% (-0.1803/wk)

* 1 Year -0.0207 to 0.9395% (-0.0423/wk)

STIR: Federal Reserve Bank of New York EFFR for prior session:

* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.04%, volume: $107B

* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 0.04%, volume: $253B

US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, volume levels reflect prior session):

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 0.01%, $1.141T

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 0.01%, $489B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 0.01%, $471B

FED: RECAP NY Fed operational purchases for Friday

* Tsy 0-2.25Y, $12.000B accepted, $38.770B submitted

* TIPS 7.5Y-30Y, $3.296B accepted, $4.328B submitted

*** NY Fed lowers daily avg Tsy sec buys to $10B from $15B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Monday ($7.5B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 7Y-20Y, appr $5B

* 1100-1120ET: TIPS 1Y-7.5Y, appr $2.5B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Tuesday ($11B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 0-2.25Y, appr $8B

* 1100-1120ET: Tsy 20-30Y, appr $3B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Wednesday ($7B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 4.5Y-7Y, appr $7B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Thursday ($14B)

* 1010-1030ET: Tsy 20Y-30Y, appr $3B

* 1100-1120ET: Tsy 2.25Y-4.5Y, appr $11B

NY Fed operational purchases schedule for Friday ($10.5B)

* 1100-1120ET: TIPS 7.5Y-30Y, appr $2.5B

* 1200-1220ET: Tsy 0-2.5Y, appr $8B

OUTLOOK: *** US Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

27-Apr 1030 Apr Dallas Fed manufacturing index (-70.0, -71.5)

27-Apr 1130ET TBA 13W Bill auction (912796WY1)

27-Apr 1130ET TBA 26W Bill auction (9127962T5) 

27-Apr 1300ET TBA 2Y Note auction (912828ZM5)

27-Apr 1300ET TBA 5Y Note auction (912828ZL7)

PIPELINE: Eli Lilly Launched, TI priced

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld; Priced *; Launch #

04/24 $1B #Eli Lilly 30Y +110

04/24 $750M *Texas Instruments WNG 10Y +115

Next week:

04/28 $3B Delta Airlines

04/?? APICorp (Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation) investor call

Eurodollar/Tsy options

Eurodollar options

Block 1235:25ET, 11,629 May 93 puts vs. Jun 90/91 put spds, even net

* +16,000 Jun 95/96 call over risk reversals, 1.0 net, and still offered

* 10,000 May 96/97 call spds vs Jun 90/91 put spds

* 5,000 Sep 92/95 call spds

* 9,000 Sep 95/96 2x1 put spds

* 1,500 Jul 92/93/95/96 put condors

* 4,000 Mar 93/96 put spds vs. short Mar 92 puts

* 10,000 Sep 93/95/96 put trees, 0.5

* Update, over 10,000 Jun 96/97 call spds, 2.5

* Update, appr 35,000 May 96/97 call spds vs. May 95 puts

* Update, appr 30,000 May 96/97 call spds vs. May 95 puts

* +9,300 May 93 puts, 0.5

* 2,000 Dec 88/95 2x1 put spds

* 2,600 Green Sep 97 straddles

* 20,000 May 96/97 call spds vs. May 95 puts

* >19,000 Sep 97 calls, 3.75 last

* 15,000 Jun 88 puts, 0.5

* +10,000 Sep 96/97/98 call fly vs. Jun 96 calls, 0.0 net

* 7,500 Mar 92/95/97 put flys

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]