USD/Asia Pairs Rally, Some Outperformance From IDR & MYR

USD/Asia pairs are higher across the board, with fallout from the oil price spike felt around the region. There has been some modest outperformance from currencies with some commodity exposure, like MYR and IDR, while KRW and THB have been underperformers. Tomorrow, South Korean CPI is on tap, which is the main event risk for the session.

• USD/CNH tested back above 6.9000, amid broad USD gains and a weaker than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI print. We are now back close to 6.8950, still around 0.35% weaker versus closing levels at the end of last week. The onshore equity backdrop is better, with the CSI 300 up 0.87% at this stage, which has likely helped the currency at the margins.
• 1 month USD/KRW got above 1318 before selling interest capped the move. This is still multi week highs. The simple 200-day MA comes in near 1324. Over the weekend exports remained around recent lows for Mar, although the trade deficit was better than expected. The 1 month last sat at 1314/15.
• USD/IDR edged back above 15000 in the first part of trading, but has seen very little follow through dollar demand. This leaves the pair little changed for the session, which is outperforming the firmer USD backdrop elsewhere in the Asian FX space. The better commodity backdrop evident today from a palm oil standpoint is helping. On the data front today we have already had the Mar PMI, coming in better than the prior read (51.9 from 51.2). Mar CPI came in lower than forecast, headline at 4.97%, versus 5.12% expected.
• The Ringgit is marginally outperforming USD/Asia this morning as it benefits from OPEC+ unexpected production cuts which were announced over the weekend. WTI futures are up ~5.5% having been as much as 7% firmer in early trade. Palm Oil futures are also firmer currently up ~2.5% having risen over 3% in early dealing. Bears target the March lows at 4.3857, bulls look to break the 20-Day EMA to turn the tide (4.4406).
• USD/SGD is ~0.3% firmer today, dealing a touch below the 20-Day EMA ($1.3354), as SGD follows the broader USD/Asia trend after a softer than expected Caixin MFg PMI print from China. Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA ($1.3354) from here they can target the March high at $1.3576. The next downside target for bears is the 2023 low at $1.3032. The SGD NEER is slightly higher, albeit within recent ranges.
• USD/THB is back above 34.40, close to +0.60% firmer versus Friday closing levels. This is close by to the 100-day MA, with rallies beyond this level not sustained in late March, early February.