MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 25

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USD Backdrop Improves Ahead of the Fed

FOREX
  • The greenback trades furtively firmer, however the USD Index sits inside the week's range amid more muted trade, as markets tread water ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Markets watch the range of 103.272 - 104.263 - a break of which in either direction will confirm a range breakout and prompt markets to consider the broader trend headed into year-end.
  • NZD is among the session's poorest performers, pushing spot briefly through the 200-dma support at 0.6089. Commodities prices are modestly softer and a lower close for China and Hong Kong equity markets will also be adding weight. A firmer break and close below the 200-dma mark will open the next notable downside level at 0.6051, the 38.2% retracement for the Oct - Dec upleg.
  • EUR/GBP remains a cross of note, with prices refuting the potential formation of a bear flag after the early December consolidation phase. The cross is higher again early Wednesday, narrowing the gap with both the Dec01 high 0.8635 as well as the 100-dma of 0.8637.
  • Focus ahead rests on the Fed decision, at which markets watch for the Fed to maintain a cautious approach to policy. Little material change in guidance is expected, with this week's CPI print unlikely to have shifted phrasing around prices - seen being retained at "inflation remains elevated".
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Energy BulletsCommoditiesBond Market News

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