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USD/CNH Back Above 7.2800, MLF Seen Steady Today, Q2 GDP Also Out

CNH

USD/CNH is firmer in the first part of Monday dealing, the pair last above 7.2850. This is around 0.20% weaker in yuan terms versus end Friday levels in NY. This is line with broader USD gains, which have seen some spillover from rising Trump election odds (post the weekend assassination attempt). The BBDXY is up around 0.20% in the first part of dealings. USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.2504 on Friday.

  • Rising Trump election odds may increase risk premium in terms of the USD/CNH outlook, given Trump's rhetoric around tariff increases on the country. Recent highs in USD/CNH rest at 7.3114, from July 3. Current spot levels are around the 20-day EMA, while the 50-day is further south near 7.2710.
  • Still, this has to be counterbalanced by recent soft data outcomes in the US, with last week's CPI miss pushing market pricing towards a September Fed cut. US-CH yields differentials have fallen since the start of the month.
  • Outside of broader US focus points, we have the local focus today on the 1yr MLF, which is seen steady at 2.50%, while rollover amounts are seen at CNY90bn. Shortly after we have June house prices, then Q2 GDP. The market expects 0.9% q/q growth (1.6% prior). Also out is June monthly activity figures, with consensus looking for slower activity compared to the May prints.
  • Focus will also be on the Third Plenum (July 15 -18), which kicks off today.
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