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USD/CNH Back Below All Key EMAs, 1 Month Vol Spikes

CNH

USD/CNH dipped to the low 6.8300 region late in NY trade, before rebounding towards 6.8600. We track back under 6.8500 currently. For Monday's session CNH gained 1.27%, while the NEER was +0.57% higher, putting the index back at 126.58 (J.P. Morgan Index), which is back near highs for the year.

  • USD/CNH is now back sub all key EMAs. The 200-day comes in at 6.8689, with this point acting as a support level since mid Feb. The simple 50-day MA is near by at 6.8373, which could be watched on the downside today.
  • 1 month implied CNH vol climbed to 7.65%, around fresh highs for the year. The risk reversal space was steadier though.
  • Like elsewhere, the CNH benefited from the continued sharp pullback in US yields. The local data calendar remains quiet until tomorrow's 1yr MLF decision (no change expected) and activity readings for the Jan-Feb period.
  • The other focus point will be a potential call between US President Biden and China President Xi, which is expected to take place soon. Xi may also visit Moscow next week and then may speak with Ukrainian leader Zelenskiy according to the WSJ.
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