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USD/CNH Back Under 100-day EMA, Inflation Data Prints Tomorrow

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From near 7.2350 USD/CNH fell back to 7.2200 by late in NY trade on Thursday. We sit just above these levels in early Friday dealings. CNH gained a modest 0.1% for Thursday's session, less than the 0.29% fall in the BBDXY. Broader USD sentiment faltered post the higher than expected initial jobless claims print. Onshore USD/CNY spot finished up just under 7.2200.

  • For USD/CNH we are just under the 100-day EMA (near 7.2250), while the 200-day remains close to 7.2000. The 20 and 50-day EMAs are in the 7.2330/40 region, so close to Thursday intra session highs.
  • CNH benefited from the pull back in US yields post the jobless claims rise. US-CH yield differentials sit off recent highs, with US shifts continuing to drive trends in the spread. Onshore CGB yields remain above recent cyclical lows.
  • Equity sentiment was better onshore yesterday, the CSI 300 up nearly 1% and remaining above its 200-day MA. Further easing in housing restrictions in some major China cities is boosting sentiment in this space, although onshore equity sub indices for real estate are yet to break out of recent ranges. The Golden Dragon index rose 1.64% in US trade on Thursday, its first gain this week.
  • Q1 BoP current account figures are due today, but greater macro focus is likely to rest on tomorrow's April inflation data. The market expects +0.2% y/y for headline CPI (from 0.1%), and PPI at -2.3% y/y (prior -2.8%). April aggregate credit/new loans figures are due between now and the 15th.
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From near 7.2350 USD/CNH fell back to 7.2200 by late in NY trade on Thursday. We sit just above these levels in early Friday dealings. CNH gained a modest 0.1% for Thursday's session, less than the 0.29% fall in the BBDXY. Broader USD sentiment faltered post the higher than expected initial jobless claims print. Onshore USD/CNY spot finished up just under 7.2200.

  • For USD/CNH we are just under the 100-day EMA (near 7.2250), while the 200-day remains close to 7.2000. The 20 and 50-day EMAs are in the 7.2330/40 region, so close to Thursday intra session highs.
  • CNH benefited from the pull back in US yields post the jobless claims rise. US-CH yield differentials sit off recent highs, with US shifts continuing to drive trends in the spread. Onshore CGB yields remain above recent cyclical lows.
  • Equity sentiment was better onshore yesterday, the CSI 300 up nearly 1% and remaining above its 200-day MA. Further easing in housing restrictions in some major China cities is boosting sentiment in this space, although onshore equity sub indices for real estate are yet to break out of recent ranges. The Golden Dragon index rose 1.64% in US trade on Thursday, its first gain this week.
  • Q1 BoP current account figures are due today, but greater macro focus is likely to rest on tomorrow's April inflation data. The market expects +0.2% y/y for headline CPI (from 0.1%), and PPI at -2.3% y/y (prior -2.8%). April aggregate credit/new loans figures are due between now and the 15th.