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USD/CNH Bounces Off 200-Day MA

CNH

USD/CNH sits comfortably up from recent lows. The pair got to 7.1755/60 in Wednesday NY trade, well above earlier lows near 7.1320. CNH lost 0.27% for Wednesday's session, in line with broader USD index gains (BBDXY +0.28%). We last tracked near 7.1650. Spot USD/CNY ended the session at 7.1648, while the CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan index) gained 0.27% to 124.12.

  • Recent USD/CNH lows have coincided around the simple 200-day MA, which is at 7.1314, based off Wednesday NY closing levels. this will be the key watch point on the downside.
  • The USD/CNY fixing will be in focus given the sharp move down in the first 3 sessions of this week (7.1254 yesterday), particularly in light of the firmer USD backdrop as the Wednesday session progressed.
  • The local data calendar just has Swift global payments data on CNY transactions out today, which is unlikely to move market sentiment.
  • Some focus may rest on fallout from headlines that crossed late yesterday that one of China's largest shadow banks warned it is severely insolvent per BBG (see this link).
  • In the equity space, the Golden Dragon index rose 0.48% in Wednesday US trade. To recap, the CSI 300 closed down just over 1% in onshore trade yesterday.

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