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USD/CNH Lower, But USD/CNY Holding Steady, Q1 GDP & Mar Activity Data Out Tomorrow

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USD/CNH sits close to session lows in recent dealings, the pair near 7.2575/80. Local equities have started the week off better than the rest of the region, although more so the CSI 300 than Shanghai Composite. Late news on Friday around fresh stock regulations is aiding sentiment (see this link for more details).

  • For USD/CNH post US CPI lows on Thursday came just under 7.2500, which could be a downside target. Note the 20-day EMA, which has drifted higher, was last near 7.2440. Recent highs close to 7.2700 are the upside focus point.
  • Still, spot USD/CNY is unmoved last near 7.2380, which still suggests some pent up USD demand onshore. The CNH-CNY basis has generally stayed positive in recent months, so lack of downside in USD/CNY spot may stabilize USD/CNH to a degree.
  • Onshore media is also upbeat on the near term economic outlook. This comes ahead of tomorrow's Q1 GDP data. The market expects q/q growth at 1.5% (prior 1.0%), while y/y growth is forecast at 4.8% (prior was 5.2%). Also out is March activity figures.
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USD/CNH sits close to session lows in recent dealings, the pair near 7.2575/80. Local equities have started the week off better than the rest of the region, although more so the CSI 300 than Shanghai Composite. Late news on Friday around fresh stock regulations is aiding sentiment (see this link for more details).

  • For USD/CNH post US CPI lows on Thursday came just under 7.2500, which could be a downside target. Note the 20-day EMA, which has drifted higher, was last near 7.2440. Recent highs close to 7.2700 are the upside focus point.
  • Still, spot USD/CNY is unmoved last near 7.2380, which still suggests some pent up USD demand onshore. The CNH-CNY basis has generally stayed positive in recent months, so lack of downside in USD/CNY spot may stabilize USD/CNH to a degree.
  • Onshore media is also upbeat on the near term economic outlook. This comes ahead of tomorrow's Q1 GDP data. The market expects q/q growth at 1.5% (prior 1.0%), while y/y growth is forecast at 4.8% (prior was 5.2%). Also out is March activity figures.