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USD/CNH Nudges Higher, But Yuan Still Outperforming Firmer USD Levels

CNH

USD/CNH got to fresh highs near 7.2090 in US trade on Monday, before easing modestly into the close. We track near 7.2065 in early Tuesday dealings. Dips in the pair to the 7.2020/25 region were supported in Monday trade. Onshore USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.1984, so just shy of the 7.2000 resistance point. The CNY NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) rose further to 124.33 (+0.11%), as the yuan continued to outperform the firmer USD backdrop.

  • USD/CNH still looks too low relative to US-CH yield differentials, which continue to track higher, with the 2yr and 10yr spreads back to mid Nov levels form last year. US yields generally remain on the front foot as the FOMC comes into focus.
  • In US trade, the Golden Dragon index fell a further 0.63%, its third straight session of losses. Still, mainland shares continued to rise yesterday, both the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite up close to 1%. Yesterday's better IP/FAI data, likely helping at the margins.
  • Northbound stock connect flows continue as well, lending some support to the yuan, although the China equities are not dramatically outperforming the rest of the world trend. Last month also saw offshore investors sell local bonds for the first time since September last year (see this BBG link).
  • Elsewhere, the EU is considering a review of risks around China legacy computer chips, similar to what the US has done (see this link).
  • The local data calendar is empty until tomorrow's 5yr and 1yr LPR decisions, no change is forecast though.

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