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CNY Fixing Still Biased Modestly Firmer

CNH

The CNY fix was modestly firmer than expected. The market consensus was 6.6574, versus the actual print of 6.6566.

  • Today's fix was a very modest downside surprise of -8pips in USD/CNY terms. This follows yesterday's downside surprise of -25pips.
  • This brings the rolling 5 sum of the fixing error term to -33pips, so a little wider than last Friday's -11pips, but still well away from the recent trough of -186pips in early May.
  • In 17 out of the last 20 fixings, the CNY fix has been firmer that the market estimate.
  • Still, the market reaction has been quite modest in USD/CNH post the fix. The pair is down slightly from intra-day highs of close to 6.6750.
  • We will go back to watching broader equity market sentiment and for any hints of change in US tariff policy.
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The CNY fix was modestly firmer than expected. The market consensus was 6.6574, versus the actual print of 6.6566.

  • Today's fix was a very modest downside surprise of -8pips in USD/CNY terms. This follows yesterday's downside surprise of -25pips.
  • This brings the rolling 5 sum of the fixing error term to -33pips, so a little wider than last Friday's -11pips, but still well away from the recent trough of -186pips in early May.
  • In 17 out of the last 20 fixings, the CNY fix has been firmer that the market estimate.
  • Still, the market reaction has been quite modest in USD/CNH post the fix. The pair is down slightly from intra-day highs of close to 6.6750.
  • We will go back to watching broader equity market sentiment and for any hints of change in US tariff policy.