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Free AccessCNY Fixing Still Biased Firmer
The CNY fix was again firmer than expected. The market consensus was 6.6588, versus the actual print of 6.6550.
- Today's fix saw a step up in terms of the bias. We printed at -38pips in USD/CNY terms for the fixing surprise. This follows yesterday's downside surprise of -8pips. This brings the week to date cumulative bias to -71pips.
- The rolling 5 day sum of the fixing error term is now -92pips, so a modest lean against depreciation pressures. Note last Friday this rolling 5 day sum was back to -11pips.
- USD/CNH slipped post the fix, moving from the high 6.66 region but there hasn't been a great deal of follow through. USD/CNH is back close to 6.6700 now.
- Besides broader USD sentiment, the focus will be on US tariff deliberations, with Biden now travelling back to the US after his North Asia trip.
- US Trade Representative Katherine Tai stated the US must be strategic around the tariff decision and any decision needs to be viewed in terms of realigning the US-China trade and economic relationship.
- Such a comment arguably reduces the odds of tariffs coming down, although clearly Biden/Yellen will also be focused on the domestic inflation issue in the US.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.