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Caixin PMI Out Today

CNH

The main data focus today is the Caixin manufacturing PMI. The market expects an improvement to 49.0 from 46.0 last month.

  • Yesterday the official PMIs surprised on the upside for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing. The Caixin survey tends to be more focused on the SME sector, which still looked to be under pressure in May, based off the Standard Chartered survey we highlighted last week. Policy measures have also been targeted at the SME sector.
  • Still, it would arguably take a sharp downside surprise to shake market confidence. The general sense is the economy is moving away from the trough point, particularly given the recent easing of restrictions.
  • The Citi China economic activity surprise index also edged higher yesterday to -52.1 from -65.1 on Monday. This halts a strong downtrend evident in the index since mid May.
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