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USD/CNH Holds Above 6.7000, No Clarity on US Tariff Decision ​​

CNH

USD/CNH peaked just above 6.7300 in early London trading yesterday. We dipped as far as 6.7000, but track above 6.7100 in early trade today.

  • Today's data calendar is devoid of any macro releases (just SWIFT CNY payments data on tap).
  • There should be focus on the CNY fixing though, given yesterday's weaker than expected outcome (a +27pip surprise in USD/CNY terms).
  • Onshore reports point to a renewed focus on boosting infrastructure investment, via lending support and a step up in fiscal spending.
  • In the US, the administration still seems split around tariff policy. Overnight, US Trade Representative Tai reiterated her position that tariffs give the US leverage in negotiations and that the US shouldn't walk away from this position.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen and the Commerce Secretary have both stated lower tariffs could help bring down inflation pressures, although the broad consensus remains this will be with a decent lag (i.e. beyond 6 months).
  • In any event, a decision on tariffs isn't expected in the near term, with Reuters reporting earlier this week that any announcement by Biden was unlikely ahead of next week's G7 meetings.
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