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CNH Outperforms USD Bounce

CNH

USD/CNH dipped just below 6.7500 overnight, as markets unwound some of the risk-premium built up over the previous session. Still, we rebounded from this level back towards 6.7800 and we aren't too far away from this level presently (6.7780 last).

  • Relief in offshore markets appeared to centre on no direct escalation from China as Pelosi landed in Taiwan. Still, we await to see how things unfold today, with Pelosi to meet Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen at 10:53am local time.
  • Tomorrow military drills kick off around Taiwan as well, which will last until Sunday. Such drills clearly create the risks of accidental clashes between military forces but for the moment most analysts are calling China's response to Pelosi's visit as contained.
  • Outside of geopolitical risks, the Caixin services PMI for July prints today. The market expects a 53.9 print, versus 54.5 prior. The Caixin composite PMI also prints.
  • We will also watch the CNY fix, where the bias has been drifting slightly weaker.
  • CNH outperformed the majors overnight as the USD rebounded on higher yields. CNH/JPY got back to the 100 day MA at 19.67, versus lows under 19.30.
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