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CNH Resilience Persists

CNH

USD/CNH's dip sub 6.7800 late yesterday wasn't sustained. The pair rebounded and spent much of the NY session between the 6.7900/6.8000 level. We currently track just under 6.7900. The data calendar is quiet today, with Swift global payments in CNY the only data print on tap. The focus will be further stimulus measures.

  • CNH has outperformed the likes of JPY, AUD and NZD over the past 24 hours, with all of these currencies showing a stronger beta with respect to higher core yield moves and softer commodity prices. CNH/JPY is back close to 20.00 (last 19.88), with moves above 20.00 capping gains in this pair since the start of the month.
  • Elsewhere, onshore media report that the authorities may issues an extra 1.5 trillion yuan ($221bn) in debt this year to aid investment spending. This was reported in a number of the onshore security newspapers. The funds would be used to boost infrastructure spending and comes after Premier Li's earlier call this week for key districts to boost their efforts to stabilize the growth backdrop. Note China Vice Premier Hu Chunhua made similar comments yesterday.
  • Onshore yields have stabilized following sharp falls at the start of the week after the surprise MLF cut. The equity picture has improved relative to offshore markets as well. The composite index rose 0.45%, the CSI 300 just under 1% yesterday. The property sub-index continued to outperform (+1.95%).
  • Interestingly though, onshore steel prices have rolled back over in recent sessions, while iron ore futures are down around 14% from recent highs, back to the low $100-$103/tonne region.

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