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CNY Fixing Strongest Relative To Expectations Since August 2019

CNH

The USD/CNY fix printed at 6.8802, versus a market estimate of 6.9051 (BBG survey).

  • Today's fix is a downside surprise in USD/CNY terms of -249pips. This is the largest downside surprise since late August 2019 (-291pips on the 28th).
  • For the past 5 sessions we have now seen cumulative downside surprises to the tune of -558 pips, which is also fresh wides on this metric going back to September 2019.
  • The authorities resolve to curb depreciation pressures is stepping up via the fixing mechanism. Today's outcome is more than double the -120pip downside surprise from last Thursday.
  • USD/CNH has seen a downside response, moving back below 6.9100, versus around 6.9150 pre-fixing. We touched a low of close to 6.9050 before support emerged. A softer USD (against EUR, JPY etc), is helping as well.
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