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CNY Fixing Again Meaningfully Stronger than Expected

CNH

The USD/CNY fix printed at 6.8906, versus a market estimate of 6.9083 (BBG survey).

  • Today's fix is firm beat relative to expectations, albeit not as large as yesterday's outcome. In USD/CNY terms the surprise was -177pips (versus -249pips yesterday).
  • Cumulative surprises since the 24th of August, i.e. for the past 6 sessions, is now -735pips. For our 5-day metric we are just under -700pips. We are getting close to 2019 wides, see the chart below.
  • USD/CNH has edged back higher post the fixing. The pair was sitting close to 6.9150 ahead of the fixing, but we are now back to 6.9200.

Fig 1: USD/CNH & USD/CNY Fixing Error Term - 5 Day Rolling Sum

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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